In a fast-changing logistics landscape, understanding the latest air freight and air cargo developments is essential for businesses navigating global supply chains. The Aramex Air Freight Market Monitor (Q3 2025) provides actionable insights into market trends, macroeconomic signals, and regional performance — helping decision-makers stay ahead in an evolving global economy.
Global economy & trade signals
Q3 2025 saw continued volatility in global trade due to U.S. tariff policies and geopolitical uncertainty. Despite this, moderating inflation and easing monetary policies provided some relief for businesses worldwide.
Key highlights from the report:
- Global GDP projected to grow ~3% in 2025
- Emerging markets like South Asia (~5.7%) and Sub-Saharan Africa (~4%), growing faster than developed economies
- Oil prices dropped ~11% YoY, reducing energy costs for shippers
These macroeconomic signals are critical for businesses relying on air freight, as they influence capacity planning, cost management, and route strategy.
Related Reading: U.S. tariff changes 2025: The ultimate business guide
Air freight market overview: Demand, capacity & rates
Outbound MENAT air freight:
- Overall demand down 6% YoY, reflecting weaker exports from key hubs.
- Growth seen on select lanes, including Oceania, West & Central Africa, and North Asia.
- Europe and intra-MENAT routes still account for the largest share of outbound shipments.
Inbound MENAT air freight:
- Demand up 1% YoY, signaling import-driven trade recovery.
- Strong growth in demand on Southeast Asia-MENAT lanes.
- Oceania-MENAT lanes recorded the highest capacity increase.
Capacity & Rates:
- Expanding capacity on both inbound and outbound lanes created downward pressure on freight rates, offering short-term cost advantages for shippers.
Understanding these air cargo trends is vital for logistics teams to make informed decisions and optimize supply chains.
Download the full Aramex Air Freight Market Monitor (Q3 2025).
MENAT regional insights
The MENAT region continues to show resilience, supported by:
- Active infrastructure investments
- Steady cross-border trade flows
- Fiscal stability and sustained foreign capital inflows
Key sectors maintaining strong demand include industrials, automotive, and retail. Meanwhile, cross-border e-commerce faces challenges due to changing de-minimis exemptions, emphasizing the need for strategic planning in logistics operations.
Related Reading: Navigating customs: Top 5 mistakes small businesses make
What to expect in Q4 (at a glance)
- Modest global air cargo demand growth, with peak season less intense due to earlier front-loading
- Downward pressure on rates globally, as capacity continues to outpace demand
- Localized rate spikes on certain lanes (e.g., reduced Transatlantic capacity; high e-commerce demand out of Asia)
- Capacity crunches out of Asia due to e-commerce + winter schedules
- MENAT remains resilient, with stable capacity, strong e-commerce flows, and steady growth on Middle East–Asia trade lanes
Why these trends matter for your business
The Q3 report provides actionable intelligence for supply chain and logistics planning:
- Cost management: Downward pressure on rates creates short-term savings opportunities.
- Route optimization: Lane-level insights help plan outbound and inbound shipments efficiently.
- Risk mitigation: Tracking market trends and macroeconomic signals enables proactive decision-making.
Aramex air freight: Your strategic partner
We leverage our global network, regional expertise, and data-driven insights to provide reliable air freight solutions. From corridor-level analysis to flexible logistics planning, we help businesses navigate the complexities of the global economy and stay ahead in international trade.
Download the full Aramex Air Freight Market Monitor (Q3 2025) for detailed charts, forecasts, and lane-level analysis.
